Sportsbook Strategies
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Some basic
Tactics:
1) Never put yourself under
pressure by betting more than you can afford.
2) When betting on NFL games,
always try to get the final difference of 3
points on your side. Roughly 10% of all NFL
games finish with the favorite winning by 3. The
difference between 2.5 & 3 (or 3.5 & 3) may not
look much, but it is massive.
3) If you like NFL teasers, do
not bet at worse conditions than this:
i) You lay 110/100.
ii) If either game is tied, result of bet is a
push.
iii) You receive a 6 point start on each game.
It is usually better to subtract points from the
favorite than to add to the underdog (for
example, if Washington is a 7 point favorite
over Dallas, generally 'Skins -1 is more likely
to win than 'Boys +13, although there is of
course a decent chance that both will win.
4) NFL odds tend to drift in
the direction of the favorite as the week goes
on. Some overseas based bookmakers put lines up
early in the week. If you like a favorite, it
often pays to bet it early, and pick up the
benefit of perhaps 1 or 2 points.
5) If you like golf, 72-hole
head to head matchups can be fun. Golfers, like
horses, have favorite courses. It pays to do
some homework. Try to find a player who has good
previous form on the course (especially if he
lives nearby and knows the course well). Dudley
Hart, in Fort Lauderdale in March, was a good
example of this theory. Incidentally, the
correct odds should be -110 each player (tie no
bet). British bookmakers seem to think they have
a God-given right to win if players are tied
after 72 holes. Clarify this item first, and do
not bet if you lose the tie.
6) Horse racing is a murderous
sport to bet on. The tracks keep something like
17% (as opposed to, for example, NFL margins of
4.5%), and you are betting against a million
wise guys all over the world who do nothing but
study form 25 hours a day. If you are willing to
work that hard, study up on a esoteric area of
the internet and make yourself some real money.
7) When the Winter Olympics
come around, watch for foreign figure skaters
against fancied American girls. The bulk of the
judges are European and, surprise surprise, they
seem to prefer the style of their own homebreds.
A few years ago, Oxana Baiul was a dead cert
against both Nancy Kerrigan and Tonya Harding,
and yet was 3rd favorite in the betting!
Remember, all these continental judges know each
other for years, and the national skating
associations of small countries in East Europe
are not exactly loaded with cash.
Incidentally, if there is any betting on
gymnastics in the Summer Olympics, remember, it
is a sport which carries a profile like figure
skating.
8) Tennis is a sport more
dominated by the surface than any other. Take a
big serving net-rusher like Pete Sampras, plunk
him down on the slow clay of Paris, and you have
a potential Round I loser. Look for big servers
like Pete, or Rusedski, Krajicek and Todd Martin
to do well at Wimbledon (on grass), and in the
ATP Masters (indoors), the season finale. Avoid
them at continental venues.
9) Betting is for fun, so treat
it as such! If you cannot follow basic concepts
such as those above, and you feel you must bet
every game or every race (instead of waiting for
the good bets), play the lottery - you'll have a
better chance.
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